Well none of us here can be really sure. Some of us think it depends on the generation. Some of us think it might depend of care and their instrument or maybe on their genre or maybe even their stats. I'm not saying any of these are wrong but here's a bit of what I've collected.
If you have an odd generation then you will most likely get a kikitchi. It doesn't matter how you care for him, he will just turn into a kikitchi. If you have an even generation you might get a Hintodetchi(fire tama). Like I've said before none of us know for sure on this. Hope I helped!
PS: If you take REALLY bad care of your character I can just about guarantee you will get a Gozarutchi. :furawatchi: